Computer models can forecast disease outbreaks

SPRINGFIELD, Mass. (WWLP) - We know the 22News Storm Team uses computer models to forecast the weather, but there are now some new computer models that can be used to help predict disease outbreaks.

These computerized projections factor in various weather conditions to forecast disease.

In a recent study, two scientists using the computer models were able to predict when the flu season was going to peak in New York City, more than seven weeks in advance.

A Smith College biology major told 22News she has conducted experiments that show temperature does have an effect on microbes.

“The more extreme the temperature is, the more variant microbes will be, so they can survive,” said Haley Mack. “And we definitely see a correlation between flu season and duration of flu season, and it lasting into mid-February and March and it's coming much earlier.”

Health officials think the computer models could be used to fine tune vaccination campaigns and other disease prevention efforts. Some experts note that outbreaks are also influenced by human behavior and other factors.

And they argue that weather based outbreak predictions still have a long way to go.