Assessing the accuracy of daily forecasts

Weather News

CHICOPEE, Mass. (WWLP) – Over the past week, meteorologists all over New England were talking about a potential snowstorm Friday night into Saturday, but as the forecast progressed, it was mostly a miss.

Many western Massachusetts locals woke up to a dusting of snow due to scattered light overnight snow showers, but the rest of the day the forecast just called for a chance for random sprinkles or flurries.

That’s because every single day we update a forecast, it changes slightly. So as the week went on, the forecast was favoring warmer air, and a farther south track of the storm. That’s because of a shifting jet stream.

When the temperature forecast is already close to freezing, it doesn’t take much of a forecast change to go from snow to rain. So by Thursday and Friday, we had a pretty good idea it was going to be a miss.

So let’s talk about the accuracy of daily forecasts. According to the National Weather Service, your standard five-day weather forecast is 90-percent accurate.

A seven-day forecast is 80-percent accurate, but you’ll notice as you go beyond that, the confidence drops quickly, so that’s why we, the 22News Storm Team, continuously give updates so you’ve got the most accurate forecast.

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